SMM September 22:
The most-traded SHFE copper 2511 contract fluctuated upward today. It opened at 79,850 yuan/mt in the morning session, dipped slightly to 79,610 yuan/mt, then gradually moved higher. In the afternoon, it moved sideways near 80,100 yuan, hitting an intraday high of 80,350 yuan/mt, and finally closed at 80,160 yuan/mt, up 340 yuan/mt or 0.42% from the previous trading day. The daily trading volume was 634,000 lots, and open interest increased by 3,934 lots to 176,962 lots, indicating an intensified tug-of-war between longs and shorts and signs of capital adding positions. Futures showed early-session pressure at low levels, followed by bulls driving the market upward in the afternoon, but selling pressure at highs remained, preventing a effective breakout. Overall, from a macro perspective, the market continued to digest expectations for US Fed interest rate cuts, and the pullback in the US dollar provided some support to copper prices. Domestically, expectations for September peak season demand were still contested, spot transactions improved limitedly, and the supply-demand imbalance was not fundamentally resolved. Technically, SHFE copper regained footing above the key 80,000 yuan level. Resistance is seen at 80,350–80,500 yuan in the short term, with support near 79,600 yuan. It is expected to maintain a sideways movement with upward bias in the near term.
